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Why Everything You Know About Cat 2016 Is A Lie

Why Everything You Know About Cat 2016 Is A Lie

The markets closed marginally greater having actually located assistance at lower degrees
today. While turn over continued to be at ordinary levels. Market breadth expanded
nevertheless as well as we saw 37 shares going to the ceiling while 34 shares dropped
to the flooring. Foreigners were energetic little bit still net vendors overall today. While
the put through market was much quieter as well as we saw merely two notable
smaller sized trades in GMD & MSN going through.
The VN index closed marginally in favorable area having actually checked to
a brand-new intraday low during the existing improvement before bouncing back. The
tone here then was demonstrably much more cynical than we saw in the majority of
local markets where a sharp rebound was underway. This was due to
sharp falls in some key stocks although we did see recoveries in others.
• Banks shares were weak with an additional sharp autumn in QUOTE's share rate
which droppeded to the floor at one stage. CTG; VCB as well as EIB were likewise down.
ACB slipped while MBB rose. Information that Armed force Financial institution Securities will
listing could have helped the last.
• Brokers recovered as you could expect with a rising market led by
HCM & SSI. BVH additionally made some gains. PVI had a remarkable day.
• VNM nonetheless continuouslied decline while FPT additionally slid.
• Resource names surged with PVD delighting in a rare ceiling close offer
the bounce in petroleum. GAS additionally got on this and supposition that
they may supply a very charitable cash dividend.
• Real estate leader VIC added even higher while NLG showed moderate
gains and BCI ended the day standard.
• Steels were blended; HPG inched up while HSG continued its sharp
decline.
• HAG shut at a brand-new low.
• Speculative stocks were extremely blended mirroring the remainder of the market.
FLC & FIT acquired while OGC & HHS dropped greatly.
The a lot more positive tone in international pens was generally due to crude oil
rates which have rallied instead sharply since yesterday. And with oil costs
relocating greater today also this supplied a framework for bulls to re-merge
as well as supply tentative buying assistance to equities.
The factors for the sharp move higher was no question short covering which
remained in turn was prompted by;
(1) Tips from the European Central Bank Guv that they might announce
additional stimulus procedures in March offered growing deflationary
concerns there as well as;
(2) The current weekly record on inventory as well as production from the United States
which saw stockpiles rise by much less than anticipated 4 million barrels. However
at the very same time manufacturing of shale oil was unchanged at 9.2 million barrels
daily.
Dued to the fact that neither item of information is that substantial but rather merely the initial
item of good information for oil in a long time would certainly suggest that the rate rebound
may be brief lived. Although we do note the speed with which short
covering is occurring at current rates (a clear indicator that it's the bears
that are currently obtaining uneasy after the sharp drop in costs in current weeks).
Surprisingly oil rates have currently end up being the prism whereby we watch
and also that judge the state of the entire international economy. Which feels a little odd
as well as won't last.
Vietnamese equities rarely budged in contrast to international equities although
to be fair we shut pleasantly off the lows. The trouble below
is that we have a residential vibrant to the market in addition to a worldwide dynamic.
As well as provided a specific quantity of residential uncertainty right now,.
a rebound in local equity prices has much less effect here that it would have.
done state a few weeks ago. Nevertheless a virtually standard close on a Friday after.
a bad week is a good thing in itself.
We keep our close to term sight that a testing of the lows will proceed for the.
time being. Although we might see a day or 2 of gains in the meantime.
Today does not look like completion of the improvement in our point of view. And if.
international markets fall again and/or oil resumes the sag than we could.
still end up breaking here 510 and also seeking brand-new long-term assistance.
In macro as well as national information we note the adhering to.
January CPI shows mild acceleration in the top main cities.
The GSO launched January CPI for the largest greatest cities with blended.
results. Hanoi saw a boost of 0.12 % m/m while it was up 1.19 % y/y.
While HCMC saw a light decrease of 0.03 % m/m as well as up simply 0.26 % y/y.
The primary factor for greater rates was related to greater need for items.
ahead of the Lunar New Year; which was mainly countered by 2 consecutive.
cuts of petrol cost which totaled up to a total drop of 5.9 % for gasoline as well as.
17.7 % for DO). In HCMC, for numerous years currently, rates have actually been more.
steady at this time of year many thanks to strong supply chains and also that energetic cost.
stabilization programs. While in Hanoi we also saw a trek of education.
tuition charges for middle as well as senior high schools.
In corporate information we have the complying with;.
TMT had a solid FY2015 despite its Q4 miss. Forward.
prospects look moderate.
PRIMARY TAKEAWAY - Exceptional initial 9M completed with a.
disappointing Q4. Last quarter sales were standard while web.
profit dropped sharply. Nevertheless complete year numbers still look outstanding.
Some problem of surge in completed and also operate in.
progress supplies nonetheless which total up to nearly.
half a year's sales. While the debt tons has actually additionally reached.
quite high levels. TMT might require more funding to maintain.
the equilibrium quickly. HSC seeks NPAT development of 6 % this.
year based on sales growth sustained by Tata Motor products.

ACTIVITY-- We rank them an Underperform. We see expanding.
economic strain in the model after numerous years of stimulating.
growth. Making them extremely prone to any downturn in.
demand. Appraisals are affordable. Even so we would certainly.
lighten holdings.

FY2015 results reveal a 146.3 % y/y rise in net sales and also that 200 % y/y.
jump in NPAT-- Remarkable total although Q4 instead disappointed - TMT.
Cars JSC came out with preliminary outcomes revealing FY2015 net.
sales of VND3,365 billion, (+146.3 % y/y) generating an NPAT of VND186.6.
billion, (+200 % y/y). However provided an unanticipated deficiency in Q4 results,.
the firm undershot their modified target of VND3,550 billion in net sales.
and also that VND200 billion in NPAT.
Q4 FY2015 saw standard sales and also 73.1 % decrease in NPAT - Appropriately, Q4.
net sales concerned VND532.4 billion, almost standard y/y while NPAT went down.
quite greatly to VND6.85 billion, (down 73.1 % y/y) from VND29.96 billion in.
Q4 FY2014. This was mainly due to a 5-fold boost in offering expense, a.
59 % rise in administration expenditure plus an 82 % increase in interest.
expenditure. Higher up, Q4 GPM still increased to 14 % comparing to 12 % in.
Q4 FY2014.
FY2015 complete year sales driven by a tripling in device sales-- The leading line.
development of 146.3 % was entirely driven by a 157 % boost in sales quantity.
to 7,488 units also as ASP dropped an approximated 5 % y/y approximately. Then FY2015.
gross earnings increased by 184.4 % y/y to VND465.8 billion. And also that with this GPM.
was reported at 13.84 %, enhancing 11.98 % last year. Many thanks to a decline.
in system manufacturing expenses on the higher utilization rate of its assembly plants.
SG&A cost hopped mainly in Q4 FY2015 - SG&A hopped to.
VND143.5 billion, (+146 % y/y) from only VND58.3 billion in FY2014. Thusly.
SG&A as a % of sales pertained to 4.2 % or the same as in 2013. Nevertheless.
as stated the Q4 surge, in marketing costs to VND24.8 billion from.
VND4.7 billion and also that in administration expense to VND17.8 billion from VND11.2.
billion in Q4 FY2014 was rather unusual as well as does not have a description at the.
minute. Nonetheless it looks like costs connected with sales promo programs;.
advertising and marketing cost and also that after-sales solution being scheduled at the end.
of the year could explain a lot of it.
After that in Q4 FY2015, the business also scheduled a provision versus bad.
financial obligation totaling VND4 billion.
Net economic loss increases dramatically on greater interest expenditure - To.
VND(84.2) billion in FY2015 from VND(20.93) billion in FY2014 on a 5-fold.
rise in passion expenditure. Passion expenditure increased dramatically to VND39.2.
billion, (+425 % y/y). Short-term debt rose to VND1,134 billion, (+310 %.
YTD as well as 121 % q/q) while complete small business loan rose 412 % to VND1,158 billion.
(from VND281 billion at the start of the year). The resulting debt/.
equity ratio is now a quite high 2.97 times. Resembles much of this debt.
rise was utilized to money greater supplies which increased by 88.6 % y/y to.
VND1,533 billion. In addition, the forex loss increased to VND42.7 billion from.
no in FY2014.
Financial income decreased 7.7 % y/y to VND3.06 billion.
Pre-tax revenue and NPAT rose 189 % y/y & 200 % y/y respectively-- And also that.
were reported at VND234.6 billion, (+189 % y/y) and VND186.6 billion,.
(+200 % y/y). Net margin boosted to 5.54 % from a rather low degree 4.55 %.
in FY2014. Nonetheless, initially 9 months net margin was 6.34 % while in Q4.
FY2015 net margin went down precipitously to 1.28 %. FY2015 EPS involved.
VND5,826 as well as giving us a trailing P/E of 7.23 times.

Net capital turned adverse in FY215-- To VND(15.8) billion from.
VND15.9 billion in FY2014. Running capital was a much more damaging.
VND(708) billion as compared to VND(103) billion in FY2014. The degeneration.
came mostly in the last quarter and also was due to an almost doubling.
of supplies to VND1,533 billion at FY2015-end as compared to VND813.
billion at the end of FY2014. Capital from investments was likewise more.
negative at VND(66.9) billion from VND(1.6) billion in FY2014. As the business.
created a brand-new manufacturing facility to put together buses and made some preparations.
for the joint venture with Tata electric motors this year. Cash flow from financing.
increased to VND759 billion, a sharp rise from VND120 billion the previous.
year as the business moneyed the gap mostly by increasing small business loan.
Inventory rise primarily due to finished goods - More on that rise.
in supplies. Of this, sets and also various other basic material raised 40 % y/y to.
VND239 billion. Nonetheless the mass of it was because of finished products as well as.
then products en route offer for sale which rose numerous layer to VND425.6 billion,.
(+254 % y/y) and also VND567 billion, (+190.3 % y/y) specifically. There are.
several opportunities for this; either they were stockpiling automobiles in anticipation.
of more powerful sales this year. Or they over expected sales in Q4 due.
to numerous tax obligation modifications being implemented (which are generally beneficial.
to TMT) and afterwards ended up with excessive supply at the end of it. This.
can have effects for the 1-H of following year relying on which of the.
2 factors ends up being the truth. Offered the various out of whack numbers.
in the Q4 report we are leaning towards the last factor.
For FY2016, the firm establishes an impressive target asking for a.
72.4 % rise in top line plus a 41.5 % boost in profits-- Accordingly,.
predicting VND5,800 billion in net sales, (+72.4 % y/y) thinking.
38-40 % rise in sales quantity. The business likewise establishes an NPAT target.
of VND264 billion, (+41.5 % y/y). HSC anticipates truck demand will continue.
to grow albeit at a slowing down price given the high base result after 2 years.
of very high growth. TMT's development strategy centers on expanding their.
product lines by dispersing Tata Motor's commercial vehicles and low-cost.
automobile.
HSC forecasts FY2016 net sales to grow 27.5 % y/y-- Involving.
VND4,290 billion, (+27.5 % y/y). Nevertheless our team believe the GPM will certainly be.
pressed. Offered a fundamental adjustment in item blend with a greater contribution.
from lower earnings segments such as Tata vehicles. Based on these.
presumptions, HSC currently anticipates;.
• The anticipate gross earnings will enhance to VND536.3 billion, (+15.1 % y/y).
• Getting a GPM of 12.5 % comparing with 13.8 % in FY2015.
• Think the net monetary loss will broaden more to VND(97.2) billion,.
(-15.4 % y/y).
• And that SG&A will grow in line with the top line growth of 28.6 % y/y.
to VND184.5 billion.
• Lastly, HSC projections the business will certainly transform a pre-tax earnings of.
VND250.7 billion, (+6.9 % y/y).
This will create a net earnings of VND197.9 billion, (+6 % y/y) as well as with this.
we anticipate a FY2016 EPS of VND5,884 equating into a FY2016 forward.
P/E of 7.15 times.

FY2016 prospects rely on Tata Motor cooperation-- Provided numerous.
years of really solid development the forward prospects do rely on how the.
tactical relationship with Tata Motor continues. In 2014 saw really strong.
growth yet additionally the start of serious stress on the financials of the.
business. Accurately the result of spirituous expansion. Because of this with financial obligation leverage.
quite high and also that worryingly, stocks levels equivalent to 5.5 months of.
sales this has led to rather damaging operating capital. On the other hand.
the forward P/E of 7.15 times looks sensible. Even so provided the heady.
efficiency of the stock and also our forecast of a solitary digit development in NPAT.
this year, we placed a rating of Underperform on this stock.

HCMC-- The VN index edged higher today while turn over increased to.
VND2,055.90 billion or US$ 87.90 million. The index included 0.07 % and.
shut at 522.24. 115 stocks rose while 94 stocks dropped. And also 22 stocks.
visited the ceiling while 22 stocks went down to the flooring. Foreigners accounted.
for 16.46 % of the purchasing value as well as 20.37 % of the selling value.
Foreign buying raised in actual terms then additionally in percent.
terms. While international selling also increased in real terms then also in.
portion terms. Foreigners were net vendors to the song of VND80.335.
billion well worth of shares in HCMC. As well as we saw thirty 5 deals in.
the put through market today.
Immigrants were active customers of VIC; VCB; HPG; MSN and also GMD. They.
likewise proactively offered VIC; HPG; PROPOSAL; HAG and VCB. The put through market.
was much less active today with one jumbo; 5 big then some medium.
sized & smaller offers accounting for 9.05 % of total turn over.
We saw 520,000 shares of GMD, 250,000 shares of MSN; 141,080.
shares of VNM; 290,000 shares of VIC; 300,000 shares of VCB and also.
585,770 shares of LHG undergoing. Foreigners were energetic in the.
GMD & MSN trades and then eighteen other smaller deals in the put.
via session today in the market.
E1VFVN30 was unchanged today closing at VND8,700.

Hanoi-- The Hanoi market recovered well today while turnover boosted.
to VND407.04 billion or US$ 17.41 million. The HN index progressed.
1.09 % and also that finished the day at 73.85. 115 stocks rose while 84.
stocks fell. And also that 15 stocks visited the ceiling while 12 stocks went down to.
the flooring.
Foreigners represented 11.92 % of the purchasing worth and 11.30 % of the.
offering value. Foreigners transformed net buyers to the tune of VND2.516 billion.
well worth of shares. And also that we saw sixteen tool as well as tiny sized offers.
today throughout a rather active put through session in Hanoi accounting for.
8.00 % of overall turnover.
We saw 493,300 shares of DBC, 1,000,000 shares of PCT and 275,000.
shares of PVS in addition to some smaller sized purchases in the executed.
market today.

On 01/22/2016, VN-INDEX closed up 0.36.
points, or 0.07 percent to finish at 522.24.
points. The complete trading volume was.
159.20 million shares, 14.01 % over the.
previous session, 46.79 % over 30-day.
easy moving standard; and 49.76 %.
over 90-day basic relocating average.
Technical perspective:.
Being consisted of by the significant support location.
of 520-510 factors, the market wound up.
slightly at 522 factors today.
The coordinating volume raised to 159.
million shares, 14 percent above the.
previous day and also that stayed at a relatively.
high degree.
The favorable Hammer candlestick with a long.
reduced wick happened in day-to-day chart recommends a.
deteriorating in bearish belief as well as it includes.
reliability to the level of 520 factors.
Since the stock has bounced off of this.
degree a 4th time, the soundness of the.
support degree is improved a lot more.
Traditional energy indications indicate.
that the marketplace has actually been trading in oversold.
area and also that this typically suggests the market is.
hard to drop additionally in coming days.
We reiterate the view that the market has.
got the potential to rebound in the temporary.
point of view. The immediate resistance is at.
538 factors at previous high while the solid.
resistance is placed at around 550-555.
points.
The VN-index is unlikely to damage here the.
degree of 510 points in near-term. Nevertheless,.
if it becomes the proceedings our technical.
signs would indicate that the securities market.
has actually entered a bear market in long-term.
expectation.

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